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Die Grenzen der EZB-Prognosen

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  • Conrad, Christian
  • Enders, Zeno

Abstract

Die in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegene Inflation beschäftigt nicht nur die Währungshüter, sondern beunruhigt auch Verbraucher:innen und Politik. Der Europäischen Zentralbank wird vorgeworfen, mit ihren Inflationsprognosen in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 die tatsächliche Entwicklung deutlich unterschätzt und deshalb ihre Geldpolitik zu spät angepasst zu haben. Aber warum ist es so schwierig, die Inflation über längere Prognosehorizonte präzise vorherzusagen und welche Schlussfolgerungen sind daraus für die Geldpolitik zu ziehen? In diesem Beitrag argumentieren wir, dass die Inflationsvorhersagen der EZB für Horizonte von mehr als einem Jahr uninformativ sind und dass die EZB bei der Ausgestaltung ihrer Geldpolitik dieser Einsicht Rechnung tragen sollte.

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  • Conrad, Christian & Enders, Zeno, 2024. "Die Grenzen der EZB-Prognosen," Working Papers 0747, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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