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Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

Listed author(s):
  • Ted Theodosopoulos
  • Alex Trifunovic
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    We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. implied volatilities. Our results indicate that the modulation of autoregressive trend following using derivative-based signals significantly improves the fit to the distribution of times between successive sign flips in the underlier time series.

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    Paper provided by in its series Papers with number math/0605457.

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    Date of creation: May 2006
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0605457
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    1. Louzoun, Yoram & Solomon, Sorin, 2001. "Volatility driven market in a generalized Lotka–Voltera formalism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 220-233.
    2. Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "Trend followers lose more often than they gain," Papers physics/0508104,
    3. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hommes, Cars, 2006. "A dynamic analysis of moving average rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1729-1753.
    4. Ohnishi, Takaaki & Mizuno, Takayuki & Aihara, Kazuyuki & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2004. "Statistical properties of the moving average price in dollar–yen exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 207-210.
    5. Mizuno, Takayuki & Nakano, Tohur & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2004. "Traders' strategy with price feedbacks in financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 330-334.
    6. Mizuno, Takayuki & Kurihara, Shoko & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2003. "Analysis of high-resolution foreign exchange data of USD-JPY for 13 years," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 296-302.
    7. Farshid Jamshidian & Yu Zhu, 1996. "Scenario Simulation: Theory and methodology (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-67.
    8. Zhi-Feng Huang & Sorin Solomon, 2001. "Stochastic Multiplicative Processes for Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110273,
    9. Ohira, Toru & Sazuka, Naoya & Marumo, Kouhei & Shimizu, Tokiko & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2002. "Predictability of currency market exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 368-374.
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