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Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling


  • Ted Theodosopoulos
  • Alex Trifunovic


We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. implied volatilities. Our results indicate that the modulation of autoregressive trend following using derivative-based signals significantly improves the fit to the distribution of times between successive sign flips in the underlier time series.

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  • Ted Theodosopoulos & Alex Trifunovic, 2006. "Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling," Papers math/0605457,
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0605457

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Louzoun, Yoram & Solomon, Sorin, 2001. "Volatility driven market in a generalized Lotka–Voltera formalism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 220-233.
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    5. Mizuno, Takayuki & Nakano, Tohur & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2004. "Traders' strategy with price feedbacks in financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 330-334.
    6. Mizuno, Takayuki & Kurihara, Shoko & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2003. "Analysis of high-resolution foreign exchange data of USD-JPY for 13 years," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 296-302.
    7. Farshid Jamshidian & Yu Zhu, 1996. "Scenario Simulation: Theory and methodology (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-67.
    8. Zhi-Feng Huang & Sorin Solomon, 2001. "Stochastic Multiplicative Processes for Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110273,
    9. Ohira, Toru & Sazuka, Naoya & Marumo, Kouhei & Shimizu, Tokiko & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2002. "Predictability of currency market exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 368-374.
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