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The Opinion Game: Stock price evolution from microscopic market modelling

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  • Anton Bovier
  • Jiri Cerny
  • Ostap Hryniv

Abstract

We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock value in a stochastic way. The actual price is determined in realistic way by matching (clearing) offers until no further transactions can be performed. Some analytic results for a non-interacting model are presented. We also propose basic interaction mechanisms and show in simulations that these already reproduce certain particular features of prices in real stock markets.

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  • Anton Bovier & Jiri Cerny & Ostap Hryniv, 2004. "The Opinion Game: Stock price evolution from microscopic market modelling," Papers cond-mat/0401422, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0401422
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