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Deep Learning vs. Statistical Models for Multi-Horizon Price Forecasting of Second-Hand Electronics: A Systematic Benchmark

Author

Listed:
  • Mateusz Buczy'nski
  • Micha{l} Wo'zniak
  • Konrad Kaczy'nski
  • Anna Wr'oblewska
  • Sebastian Kuk

Abstract

Forecasting resale prices of used electronics is critical for subscription-based platforms where pricing errors translate directly into risk. Unlike structured financial markets, second-hand electronics exhibit high volatility, sparse listing histories, and non-normal price dynamics - yet no systematic time-series benchmark exists for this domain. This paper presents the first multi-horizon benchmark of statistical and deep learning forecasting models for used electronics price prediction. We use a large-scale dataset of daily price listings from Polish online marketplaces (January 2022 to March 2025, 100+ smartphone and laptop models) and evaluate eleven models across six horizons from 1 to 365 days, covering classical methods (ARIMA, ETS, Theta), recurrent and convolutional networks (LSTM, TCN), and modern deep architectures (N-BEATS, N-HiTS, TFT, PatchTST, Informer). Three complementary evaluation protocols assess trajectory fitness, one-shot endpoint accuracy, and cross-horizon transfer. N-BEATS achieves the lowest MAPE beyond 30 days, reaching 8.51% at 365 days versus 14.94% for the best statistical baseline - a 43% reduction. At short horizons (1-7 days), all models converge near 0.72% MAPE and the naive baseline remains competitive. A single N-BEATS model trained at 365 days generalizes to all shorter horizons, eliminating the need for horizon-specific models. N-BEATS and N-HiTS also demonstrate superior hyperparameter stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mateusz Buczy'nski & Micha{l} Wo'zniak & Konrad Kaczy'nski & Anna Wr'oblewska & Sebastian Kuk, 2026. "Deep Learning vs. Statistical Models for Multi-Horizon Price Forecasting of Second-Hand Electronics: A Systematic Benchmark," Papers 2610.10727, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.10727
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    References listed on IDEAS

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