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Post Selection Estimation of Sharpe Ratios

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  • Steven E. Pav

Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating the true Sharpe ratio of an asset selected for having the highest observed in-sample Sharpe ratio among many assets. We discuss estimators based on the polyhedral lemma, James Stein shrinkage, debiasing the expected maximum Sharpe ratio, thresholding and empirical Bayes. We test these estimators in simulations, computing bias and root mean square error across different values of sample size, number of assets, and spread and shape of population Sharpe ratios. We also compute rank correlation of the estimators against the underlying quantity, simulating how these estimators might be used to compare or rank the output of different teams which perform this selection process. We find that the James Stein estimator provides the best performance across many different realistic values of the relevant parameters, followed by the GMLEB estimator of Jiang and Zhang. These results are fairly robust to correlation of asset returns, with some caveats.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven E. Pav, 2026. "Post Selection Estimation of Sharpe Ratios," Papers 2606.01650, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.01650
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    2. Johnstone, Iain & Silverman, Bernard W., 2005. "EbayesThresh: R Programs for Empirical Bayes Thresholding," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i08).
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