IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2605.11180.html

The Value of Information: A Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Ohad Kadan
  • Asaf Manela

Abstract

We show that under mild assumptions, the total value of information to informed traders in the market can be measured by the covariance between price changes and order flow. This covariance captures noise trader losses, which equal informed trader gains when market making is competitive. We estimate the value of information using high frequency data on US equities at about $3.5 million per year for the average stock. The aggregate value of information is about 0.04% of market cap, which is considerably lower than the 0.67% in fees investors pay each year searching for superior returns (French 2008). We discuss potential resolutions for these puzzling findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ohad Kadan & Asaf Manela, 2026. "The Value of Information: A Puzzle," Papers 2605.11180, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.11180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.11180
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2011. "Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9621, December.
    4. Azi Ben-Rephael & Zhi Da & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2017. "It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3009-3047.
    5. Brad M. Barber & Xing Huang & Terrance Odean & Christopher Schwarz, 2022. "Attention‐Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3141-3190, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    2. Le, Anh Tuan & Nguyen, Harvey & Nguyen, Cuong, 2025. "Regret to reward: Investor regret and the cross-sectional stock returns in the Chinese market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Li, Frank Weikai & Sun, Chengzhu, 2022. "Information acquisition and expected returns: Evidence from EDGAR search traffic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Li, Qianqian & Watts, Edward M. & Zhu, Christina, 2024. "Retail investors and ESG news," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    5. Jacobs, Heiko & Lauber, Alexander & Müller, Sebastian, 2025. "Bearish bets and the press: On the relation between short interest and media tone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    6. Liu, Jie & Zhang, Jingru & Chen, Zhenshan, 2025. "The effect of stock market manipulation on investor behavioral bias," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    7. Hong, Eunpyo & Kottimukkalur, Badrinath & Noh, Joonki, 2026. "Uncertain Text and Price Reactions to Earnings Releases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Grace Weishi Gu & Zachary R. Stangebye, 2023. "Costly Information And Sovereign Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1397-1429, November.
    9. Warkulat, Sonja & Pelster, Matthias, 2024. "Social media attention and retail investor behavior: Evidence from r/wallstreetbets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    10. Du, Kai & Song, Jinyuan, 2022. "The impact of geotargeting on household information acquisition: Evidence from a Google News redesign," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    11. Haijie Huang & Edward Lee & Changjiang Lyu & Zhenmei (Judy) Zhu, 2024. "Does Firm‐level Political Uncertainty Affect the Mispricing of Earnings? A Natural Experiment through Government‐to‐business Revolving Door," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(3), pages 446-491, September.
    12. Ma, Junjun & Xiong, Xiong & Feng, Xu, 2021. "News release and the role of different types of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. César Zamudio & Suyun Mah & Vanitha Swaminathan, 2026. "Old signals, new era: Reconsidering how customer satisfaction and employee satisfaction impact shareholder wealth," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 113-134, February.
    14. Huang, Yichu & Bose, Udichibarna & Li, Zeguang & Liu, Frank Hong, 2025. "Trading without meeting friends: Empirical evidence from the wuhan lockdown in 2020," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    15. Sui, Yanjun & Tian, Xiao & Zhong, Angel & Chiah, Mardy, 2025. "Beyond the final whistle: AFL grand final and retail investor trading," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    16. Nguyen, Cuong & Hoang, Lai & Shim, Jungwook & Truong, Phuong, 2020. "Internet search intensity, liquidity and returns in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.
    18. Saif-Alyousfi, Abdulazeez Y.H., 2025. "Artificial intelligence, information environment, and capital market efficiency," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Wu, Feng-Lin & Wang, Yu-Shi & Wan, Yu-Fan & Wang, Ming-Hui, 2025. "Does investor attention drive cryptocurrency markets? Insights from network connectedness and portfolio applications," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Zhi Da & Jian Hua & Tim Chih-Ching Hung & Lin Peng, 2025. "Market Returns and a Tale of Two Types of Attention," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(12), pages 10505-10537, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.11180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.