IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2603.29751.html

Common Risk Factors in Decentralized AI Subnets

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Z. Maymin

Abstract

I derive a size premium from the constant-product automated market maker used to price Bittensor subnet tokens and test the prediction using daily data on 128 subnets. A small-minus-big factor earns 1.01% daily (Newey-West t = 3.28). The December 2025 halving of token emissions, which the theory predicts should halve the premium, reduces it from 1.17% to 0.51% (p = 0.044). Exact slippage calculations show the premium is implementable only below \$10K in assets under management; at \$100K, transaction costs exceed gross returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Z. Maymin, 2026. "Common Risk Factors in Decentralized AI Subnets," Papers 2603.29751, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29751
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.29751
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    3. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    4. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    5. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    6. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    7. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    8. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    9. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    10. Agostino Capponi & Ruizhe Jia, 2021. "The Adoption of Blockchain-based Decentralized Exchanges," Papers 2103.08842, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hadhri, Sinda & Younus, Mehak & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2025. "Listening to the Market: Music sentiment and cryptocurrency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    3. Zaremba, Adam & Czapkiewicz, Anna, 2017. "The cross section of international government bond returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 171-183.
    4. Jennifer N. Carpenter & Fangzhou Lu & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2015. "The Real Value of China's Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 20957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dobrynskaya, Victoria, 2024. "Is downside risk priced in cryptocurrency market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Hollstein, Fabian, 2022. "The world of anomalies: Smaller than we think?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    8. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    9. Liebi, Luca J., 2022. "Is there a value premium in cryptoasset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Michael J. Brennan & Sahn-Wook Huh & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Informed Trading on the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2460-2480, September.
    12. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Onishchenko, Olena & Zhao, Jing & Kongahawatte, Sampath & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and anchoring-induced momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    14. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    15. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.
    16. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.
    17. Lindaas, Knut F. & Simlai, Prodosh, 2014. "The value premium, aggregate risk innovations, and average stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 303-317.
    18. Maître, Arnaud T. & Pugachyov, Nikolay & Weigert, Florian, 2025. "Social media-based attention and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    19. Choi, Paul Moon Sub & Choi, Joung Hwa, 2018. "Is individual trading priced in stocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 76-92.
    20. Zhu, Zhaobo & Duan, Xinrui & Sun, Licheng & Tu, Jun, 2019. "Momentum and reversal: The role of short selling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 95-110.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.