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Utility-Invariant Support Selection and Eventwise Decoupling for Simultaneous Independent Multi-Outcome Bets

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  • Christopher D. Long

Abstract

For simultaneous independent events with finitely many outcomes, consider the expected-utility problem with nonnegative wagers and an endogenous cash position. We prove a short support theorem for a broad class of strictly increasing strictly concave utilities. On any fixed support family and at any optimal portfolio with positive cash, summing the active first-order conditions and comparing that sum with cash stationarity yields the exact identity \[ \frac{\lambda}{K_{\ell}^{(U)}}=\frac{1-P_{\ell,A}}{1-Q_{\ell,A}}, \] where $P_{\ell,A}$ and $Q_{\ell,A}$ are the active probability and price masses of event $\ell$, $\lambda$ is the budget multiplier, and $K_{\ell}^{(U)}$ is the continuation factor seen by inactive outcomes of that event. Consequently, after sorting each event by the edge ratio $p_{\ell i}/\pi_{\ell i}$, the exact active support is the eventwise union of the single-event supports, and this support is independent of the utility function. The single-event utility-invariant support theorem is already explicit in the free-exposure pari-mutuel setting in Smoczynski and Miles; the point of the present note is that the simultaneous independent-events analogue follows from the same state-price geometry once the right continuation factor is identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher D. Long, 2026. "Utility-Invariant Support Selection and Eventwise Decoupling for Simultaneous Independent Multi-Outcome Bets," Papers 2603.24064, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.24064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher D. Long, 2026. "Single-Event Multinomial Full Kelly via Implicit State Positions," Papers 2603.13581, arXiv.org.
    2. Bernard Rosner, 1975. "Optimal Allocation of Resources in a Pari-Mutuel Setting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(9), pages 997-1006, May.
    3. Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Fortune's Formula or the Road to Ruin? The Generalized Kelly Criterion With Multiple Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 18060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Chris Whitrow, 2007. "Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 56(5), pages 607-623, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher D. Long, 2026. "Risk-Constrained Kelly for Mutually Exclusive Outcomes: CRRA Support Invariance and Logarithmic One-Dimensional Calibration," Papers 2604.11577, arXiv.org.
    2. Christopher D. Long, 2026. "Optimal Parlay Wagering and Whitrow Asymptotics: A State-Price and Implicit-Cash Treatment," Papers 2603.26620, arXiv.org.

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