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Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events

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  • Chris Whitrow

Abstract

Summary. The problem of optimizing a number of simultaneous bets is considered, using primarily log‐utility. Stochastic gradient‐based algorithms for solving this problem are developed and compared with the simplex method. The solutions may be regarded as a generalization of ‘Kelly staking’ to the case of many simultaneous bets. Properties of the solutions are examined in two example cases using real odds from sports bookmakers. The algorithms that are developed also have wide applicability beyond sports betting and may be extended to general portfolio optimization problems, with any reasonable utility function.

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  • Chris Whitrow, 2007. "Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 56(5), pages 607-623, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:56:y:2007:i:5:p:607-623
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00594.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Matej Uhr'in & Gustav v{S}ourek & Ondv{r}ej Hub'av{c}ek & Filip v{Z}elezn'y, 2021. "Optimal sports betting strategies in practice: an experimental review," Papers 2107.08827, arXiv.org.
    2. Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Fortune's Formula or the Road to Ruin? The Generalized Kelly Criterion With Multiple Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 18060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Matus Medo & Chi Ho Yeung & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2008. "How to quantify the influence of correlations on investment diversification," Papers 0805.3397, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2009.
    4. V'elez Jim'enez & Rom'an Alberto & Lecuanda Ontiveros & Jos'e Manuel & Edgar Possani, 2023. "Sports Betting: an application of neural networks and modern portfolio theory to the English Premier League," Papers 2307.13807, arXiv.org.
    5. Rose D. Baker & Ian G. McHale, 2013. "Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 189-199, September.
    6. Hubáček, Ondřej & Šír, Gustav, 2023. "Beating the market with a bad predictive model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 691-719.
    7. Medo, Matús & Yeung, Chi Ho & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2009. "How to quantify the influence of correlations on investment diversification," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 34-39, March.

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