IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2602.15248.html

Predicting Invoice Dilution in Supply Chain Finance with Leakage Free Two Stage XGBoost, KAN (Kolmogorov Arnold Networks), and Ensemble Models

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Koptev
  • Vishnu Kumar
  • Konstantin Malkov
  • George Shapiro
  • Yury Vikhanov

Abstract

Invoice or payment dilution is the gap between the approved invoice amount and the actual collection is a significant source of non credit risk and margin loss in supply chain finance. Traditionally, this risk is managed through the buyer's irrevocable payment undertaking (IPU), which commits to full payment without deductions. However, IPUs can hinder supply chain finance adoption, particularly among sub-invested grade buyers. A newer, data-driven methods use real-time dynamic credit limits, projecting dilution for each buyer-supplier pair in real-time. This paper introduces an AI, machine learning framework and evaluates how that can supplement a deterministic algorithm to predict invoice dilution using extensive production dataset across nine key transaction fields.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Koptev & Vishnu Kumar & Konstantin Malkov & George Shapiro & Yury Vikhanov, 2026. "Predicting Invoice Dilution in Supply Chain Finance with Leakage Free Two Stage XGBoost, KAN (Kolmogorov Arnold Networks), and Ensemble Models," Papers 2602.15248, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2602.15248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.15248
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bakker, Marie-Renee & Klapper, Leora & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "Financing small and medium-size enterprises with factoring: global growth and its potential in eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3342, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Udell, Gregory F., 2008. "What's in a relationship The case of commercial lending," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 93-103.
    2. Dekkers, Rob & de Boer, Ronald & Gelsomino, Luca Mattia & de Goeij, Christiaan & Steeman, Michiel & Zhou, Qijun & Sinclair, Scott & Souter, Victoria, 2020. "Evaluating theoretical conceptualisations for supply chain and finance integration: A Scottish focus group," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Kenshi Taketa & Gregory F. Udell, 2007. "Lending Channels and Financial Shocks: The Case of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Trade Credit and the Japanese Banking Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 1-44, November.
    4. Panos Kouvelis & Fasheng Xu, 2021. "A Supply Chain Theory of Factoring and Reverse Factoring," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6071-6088, October.
    5. Suzana Baresa & Sinisa Bogdan & Zoran Ivanovic, 2017. "Specific Form Of Short-Term Financing," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 8(2), pages 119-129.
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2006. "A more complete conceptual framework for SME finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2945-2966, November.
    7. Ginés Hernández-Cánovas & Ana Mol-Gómez-Váquez & Johanna Koëter-Kant, 2014. "Legal and institutional determinants of factoring in SMEs: Empirical analysis across 25 European countries," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401481, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2005. "A more complete conceptual framework for financing of small and medium enterprises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3795, The World Bank.
    9. Gregory F Udell, 2015. "SME Access to Intermediated Credit: What Do We Know and What Don't We Know?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Angus Moore & John Simon (ed.),Small Business Conditions and Finance, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Esho, Ebes & Verhoef, Grietjie, 2018. "The Funding Gap and the Financing of Small and Medium Businesses: An Integrated Literature Review and an Agenda," MPRA Paper 90153, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Nov 2018.
    11. Hirofumi Uchida & Gregory F. Udell & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2006. "SME financing and the choice of lending technology," Discussion papers 06025, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Csóka, Péter & Havran, Dániel & Szűcs, Nóra, 2010. "Információs paradoxon a vállalkozások hitelezésében nem fizető vevő esetén [An innovation paradox in enterprise financing where buyers fail to pay]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 318-336.
    13. Ralph De Haas & Ilko Naaborg, 2006. "Foreign Banks in Transition Countries: To Whom Do They Lend and How Are They Financed?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 159-199, October.
    14. Ralph de Haas & Ilko Naaborg, 2005. "Foreign Banks in Transition Economies: Small Business Lending and Internal Capital Markets," International Finance 0504004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Diana Milena Carmona Munoz & Jairo Alejandro Chaves Camargo, 2015. "Factoring: una alternativa de financiamiento como herramienta de apoyo para las empresas de transporte de carga terrestre en Bogotá," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 7(1), pages 27-53.
    16. Ralph de Haas & Ilko Naaborg, 2005. "Does Foreign Bank Entry Reduce Small Firms' Access to Credit? Evidence from European Transition Economies," DNB Working Papers 050, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2602.15248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.