"Unmatched" From Skewed Births to a Structural Surplus of Grooms

Data on marriage flows are not available in most developing countries, making marriage market imbalance difficult to measure. Existing measures use crude fertility rates and do not account for early-life mortality, overstating the number of births surviving to marriageable ages. This paper develops the Surplus Groom Index to quantify marriage market imbalance under monogamy using census age structure, vital registration of births and deaths, and marriage timing data. The index incorporates effective fertility-total births adjusted for under-five mortality - to reflect actual cohort progression from birth to marriageable ages. This adjustment matters in settings where child mortality shapes the supply of marriage partners. Using India's 2011 Census data, we find that eleven percent of men aged 15-54 cannot marry due to bride shortage, approximately 39 million men. Marriage imbalance is widespread rather than regionally concentrated. Punjab records the highest deficit at 33 percent, but states considered demographically progressive show substantial imbalance: Kerala 18 percent, West Bengal 14 percent, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu 11 percent each. Declining fertility has produced smaller female cohorts unable to absorb male-heavy cohorts from earlier birth years. Balanced sex ratios at birth do not ensure marriage market equilibrium once fertility declines and marriage is delayed.