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Informative Risk Measures in the Banking Industry: A Proposal based on the Magnitude-Propensity Approach

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  • Michele Bonollo
  • Martino Grasselli
  • Gianmarco Mori
  • Havva Nilsu Oz

Abstract

Despite decades of research in risk management, most of the literature has focused on scalar risk measures (like e.g. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall). While such scalar measures provide compact and tractable summaries, they provide a poor informative value as they miss the intrinsic multivariate nature of risk.To contribute to a paradigmatic enhancement, and building on recent theoretical work by Faugeras and Pag\'es (2024), we propose a novel multivariate representation of risk that better reflects the structure of potential portfolio losses, while maintaining desirable properties of interpretability and analytical coherence. The proposed framework extends the classical frequency-severity approach and provides a more comprehensive characterization of extreme events. Several empirical applications based on real-world data demonstrate the feasibility, robustness and practical relevance of the methodology, suggesting its potential for both regulatory and managerial applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Bonollo & Martino Grasselli & Gianmarco Mori & Havva Nilsu Oz, 2025. "Informative Risk Measures in the Banking Industry: A Proposal based on the Magnitude-Propensity Approach," Papers 2511.21556, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.21556
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.21556
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