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A Theory of Saving under Risk Preference Dynamics

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  • Qingyin Ma
  • Xinxi Song
  • Alexis Akira Toda

Abstract

Empirical evidence shows that wealthy households have substantially higher saving rates and markedly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than other groups. Existing theory cannot account for this pattern unless under restrictive assumptions on returns, discounting, and preferences. This paper develops a general theory of optimal savings with preference shocks, allowing risk aversion to vary across states and over time, and shows that incorporating such heterogeneity in risk attitudes fundamentally reshapes the asymptotic dynamics of consumption and saving. In particular, zero asymptotic MPCs (100% asymptotic saving rates) arise under markedly weaker conditions than in existing theory. Strikingly, such outcomes occur whenever there is a positive probability that agents become less risk averse in the future. Therefore, the vanishing MPC emerges as a generic feature rather than a knife-edge result of the optimal savings model, offering a more theoretically robust and empirically consistent account of the saving behavior of wealthy households.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingyin Ma & Xinxi Song & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "A Theory of Saving under Risk Preference Dynamics," Papers 2511.03142, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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