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Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models

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Listed:
  • Pauliina Ilmonen
  • Milla Laurikkala
  • Kostiantyn Ralchenko
  • Tommi Sottinen
  • Lauri Viitasaari

Abstract

The Vasicek model is a commonly used interest rate model, and there exist many extensions and generalizations of it. However, most generalizations of the model are either univariate or assume the noise process to be Gaussian, or both. In this article, we study a generalized multivariate Vasicek model that allows simultaneous modeling of multiple interest rates while making minimal assumptions. In the model, we only assume that the noise process has stationary increments with a suitably decaying autocovariance structure. We provide estimators for the unknown parameters and prove their consistencies. We also derive limiting distributions for each estimator and provide theoretical examples. Furthermore, the model is tested empirically with both simulated data and real data.

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  • Pauliina Ilmonen & Milla Laurikkala & Kostiantyn Ralchenko & Tommi Sottinen & Lauri Viitasaari, 2025. "Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models," Papers 2509.03208, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.03208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    3. Langetieg, Terence C, 1980. "A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 71-97, March.
    4. Nummi, Patrik & Viitasaari, Lauri, 2024. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for continuity of hypercontractive processes and fields," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Marko Voutilainen & Lauri Viitasaari & Pauliina Ilmonen & Soledad Torres & Ciprian Tudor, 2022. "Vector‐valued generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes: Properties and parameter estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(3), pages 992-1022, September.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    9. Xiao, Weilin & Yu, Jun, 2019. "Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 198-231, February.
    10. Azmoodeh, Ehsan & Sottinen, Tommi & Viitasaari, Lauri & Yazigi, Adil, 2014. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for Hölder continuity of Gaussian processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 230-235.
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