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Optimal Execution in Intraday Energy Markets under Hawkes Processes with Transient Impact

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  • Konstantinos Chatziandreou
  • Sven Karbach

Abstract

This paper investigates optimal execution strategies in intraday energy markets through a mutually exciting Hawkes process model. Calibrated to data from the German intraday electricity market, the model effectively captures key empirical features, including intra-session volatility, distinct intraday market activity patterns, and the Samuelson effect as gate closure approaches. By integrating a transient price impact model with a bivariate Hawkes process to model the market order flow, we derive an optimal trading trajectory for energy companies managing large volumes, accounting for the specific trading patterns in these markets. A back-testing analysis compares the proposed strategy against standard benchmarks such as Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) and Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), demonstrating substantial cost reductions across various hourly trading products in intraday energy markets.

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  • Konstantinos Chatziandreou & Sven Karbach, 2025. "Optimal Execution in Intraday Energy Markets under Hawkes Processes with Transient Impact," Papers 2504.10282, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.10282
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    References listed on IDEAS

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