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Bounding the Effect of Persuasion with Monotonicity Assumptions: Reassessing the Impact of TV Debates

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  • Sung Jae Jun
  • Sokbae Lee

Abstract

Televised debates between presidential candidates are often regarded as the exemplar of persuasive communication. Yet, recent evidence from Le Pennec and Pons (2023) indicates that they may not sway voters as strongly as popular belief suggests. We revisit their findings through the lens of the persuasion rate and introduce a robust framework that does not require exogenous treatment, parallel trends, or credible instruments. Instead, we leverage plausible monotonicity assumptions to partially identify the persuasion rate and related parameters. Our results reaffirm that the sharp upper bounds on the persuasive effects of TV debates remain modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2025. "Bounding the Effect of Persuasion with Monotonicity Assumptions: Reassessing the Impact of TV Debates," Papers 2503.06046, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.06046
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    1. Caroline Le Pennec & Vincent Pons, 2023. "How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 703-767.
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    3. Brent Kreider & John V. Pepper & Craig Gundersen & Dean Jolliffe, 2012. "Identifying the Effects of SNAP (Food Stamps) on Child Health Outcomes When Participation Is Endogenous and Misreported," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(499), pages 958-975, September.
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