IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2412.12438.html

AI-Enhanced Factor Analysis for Predicting S&P 500 Stock Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Jiajun Gu
  • Zichen Yang
  • Xintong Lin
  • Sixun Chen
  • YuTing Lu

Abstract

This project investigates the interplay of technical, market, and statistical factors in predicting stock market performance, with a primary focus on S&P 500 companies. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning multiple years, the analysis constructs advanced financial metrics, such as momentum indicators, volatility measures, and liquidity adjustments. The machine learning framework is employed to identify patterns, relationships, and predictive capabilities of these factors. The integration of traditional financial analytics with machine learning enables enhanced predictive accuracy, offering valuable insights into market behavior and guiding investment strategies. This research highlights the potential of combining domain-specific financial expertise with modern computational tools to address complex market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiajun Gu & Zichen Yang & Xintong Lin & Sixun Chen & YuTing Lu, 2024. "AI-Enhanced Factor Analysis for Predicting S&P 500 Stock Dynamics," Papers 2412.12438, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2412.12438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.12438
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    2. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
    3. Guanhao Feng & Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Taming the Factor Zoo: A Test of New Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1327-1370, June.
    4. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasan Fallahgoul, 2025. "High-Dimensional Learning in Finance," Papers 2506.03780, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    2. Cong, Lin William & Feng, Guanhao & He, Jingyu & He, Xin, 2025. "Growing the efficient frontier on panel trees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Shanyan Lai, 2025. "Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Models in Asset Pricing: An Empirical Study on Large-Cap US Stocks," Papers 2505.01921, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    4. Jiang, Hao & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Yuan, Peixuan, 2025. "Granular information and sectoral movements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Changeun Kim & Younwoo Jeong & Bong-Gyu Jang, 2025. "Interpretable Deep Learning for Stock Returns: A Consensus-Bottleneck Asset Pricing Model," Papers 2512.16251, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    6. Yuxiao Jiao & Guofu Zhou & Wu Zhu & Yingzi Zhu, 2025. "Interpretable Factors of Firm Characteristics," Papers 2508.02253, arXiv.org.
    7. Yeonchan Kang & Doojin Ryu & Robert I. Webb, 2025. "How well do machine learning models in finance work?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-30, December.
    8. Sungwoo Kang, 2026. "The Limits of Complexity: Why Feature Engineering Beats Deep Learning in Investor Flow Prediction," Papers 2601.07131, arXiv.org.
    9. Bakalli, Gaetan & Guerrier, Stéphane & Scaillet, Olivier, 2023. "A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    10. Chai, Bailin & Jiang, Fuwei & Lin, Yihao & You, Tian, 2025. "Predicting bond risk premiums with machine learning: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. Malakhov, Alexey & Riley, Timothy B. & Yan, Qing, 2024. "Do hedge funds bet against beta?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1507-1525.
    12. Eghbal Rahimikia & Stefan Zohren & Ser-Huang Poon, 2021. "Realised Volatility Forecasting: Machine Learning via Financial Word Embedding," Papers 2108.00480, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    13. repec:cam:camjip:2506 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shunyao Wang & Ming Cheng & Christina Dan Wang, 2025. "NewsNet-SDF: Stochastic Discount Factor Estimation with Pretrained Language Model News Embeddings via Adversarial Networks," Papers 2505.06864, arXiv.org.
    15. Kim Christensen & Mathias Siggaard & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2023. "A Machine Learning Approach to Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1680-1727.
    16. Obaid, Khaled & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2022. "A picture is worth a thousand words: Measuring investor sentiment by combining machine learning and photos from news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 273-297.
    17. Yan, Jingda & Yu, Jialin, 2023. "Cross-stock momentum and factor momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    18. Qian, Yihe & Zhang, Yang, 2025. "Long-term forecasting in asset pricing: Machine learning models’ sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and firm-specific factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Esfandiar Maasoumi & Jianqiu Wang & Zhuo Wang & Ke Wu, 2024. "Identifying factors via automatic debiased machine learning," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 438-461, April.
    20. Uddin, Ajim & Tao, Xinyuan & Yu, Dantong, 2023. "Attention based dynamic graph neural network for asset pricing," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    21. David A. Mascio & Marat Molyboga & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2023. "The battle of the factors: Macroeconomic variables or investor sentiment?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2280-2291, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2412.12438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.