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An Empirical Implementation of the Shadow Riskless Rate

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  • Davide Lauria
  • JiHo Park
  • Yuan Hu
  • W. Brent Lindquist
  • Svetlozar T. Rachev
  • Frank J. Fabozzi

Abstract

We address the problem of asset pricing in a market where there is no risky asset. Previous work developed a theoretical model for a shadow riskless rate (SRR) for such a market in terms of the drift component of the state-price deflator for that asset universe. Assuming asset prices are modeled by correlated geometric Brownian motion, in this work we develop a computational approach to estimate the SRR from empirical datasets. The approach employs: principal component analysis to model the effects of the individual Brownian motions; singular value decomposition to capture the abrupt changes in condition number of the linear system whose solution provides the SRR values; and a regularization to control the rate of change of the condition number. Among other uses (e.g., for option pricing, developing a term structure of interest rate), the SRR can be employed as an investment discriminator between asset classes. We apply the computational procedure to markets consisting of groups of stocks, varying asset type and number. The theoretical and computational analysis provides not only the drift, but also the total volatility of the state-price deflator. We investigate the time trajectory of these two descriptive components of the state-price deflator for the empirical datasets.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Lauria & JiHo Park & Yuan Hu & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2024. "An Empirical Implementation of the Shadow Riskless Rate," Papers 2411.07421, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2411.07421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
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    4. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "A Risk-Centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1493-1566.
    5. Gary Gorton & Stefan Lewellen & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "The Safe-Asset Share," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 101-106, May.
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    7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2013. "A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy," Working Paper 70936, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayush Jha & Abootaleb Shirvani & Ali Jaffri & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2025. "Advancing Portfolio Optimization: Adaptive Minimum-Variance Portfolios and Minimum Risk Rate Frameworks," Papers 2501.15793, arXiv.org.

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