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Analysis of a five-factor capital market model

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  • S{o}ren Fiig Jarner
  • Michael Preisel

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the five-factor capital market model of Munk et al.(2004). The model features a Vasicek interest rate model, an equity index with mean-reverting excess return and an index for realized inflation with mean-reverting expectation. The primary aim of the analysis is to facilitate so-called exact simulation from the model on a set of discrete time points. It turns out that this can be achieved by sampling from a (degenerate) seven-dimensional normal distribution. We derive the distributional results necessary and describe how to overcome the rank deficiency of the variance-covariance matrix in practice. The tradeable assets in the original model consist of cash, nominal bonds and stocks. We extend the investment universe to also include inflation bonds by deriving the arbitrage free break-even inflation (BEI) curve for a three-parameter specification of the two market prices of inflation risk. Finally, we provide a number of auxiliary results regarding the dynamics of constant-maturity nominal and inflation bond indices, the distribution of the stock index in nominal and real terms, and the distribution of the Sharpe ratio for individual assets and portfolios with an application to factor investing.

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  • S{o}ren Fiig Jarner & Michael Preisel, 2022. "Analysis of a five-factor capital market model," Papers 2201.05103, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2201.05103
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    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    3. Ang, Andrew, 2014. "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199959327.
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