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Design-Robust Two-Way-Fixed-Effects Regression For Panel Data

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Arkhangelsky
  • Guido W. Imbens
  • Lihua Lei
  • Xiaoman Luo

Abstract

We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that arise from a model for the assignment mechanism. We show how to construct these weights in various settings, including the staggered adoption setting, where units opt into the treatment sequentially but permanently. The resulting estimator converges to an average (over units and time) treatment effect under the correct specification of the assignment model, even if the fixed effect model is misspecified. We show that our estimator is more robust than the conventional two-way estimator: it remains consistent if either the assignment mechanism or the two-way regression model is correctly specified. In addition, the proposed estimator performs better than the two-way-fixed-effect estimator if the outcome model and assignment mechanism are locally misspecified. This strong double robustness property underlines and quantifies the benefits of modeling the assignment process and motivates using our estimator in practice. We also discuss an extension of our estimator to handle dynamic treatment effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido W. Imbens & Lihua Lei & Xiaoman Luo, 2021. "Design-Robust Two-Way-Fixed-Effects Regression For Panel Data," Papers 2107.13737, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13737
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido W. Imbens, 2019. "Doubly Robust Identification for Causal Panel Data Models," Papers 1909.09412, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
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    5. Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2021. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1716-1730, October.
    6. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ursina Schaede & Ville Mankki, 2022. "Quota vs Quality? Long-Term Gains from an Unusual Gender Quota," CESifo Working Paper Series 9811, CESifo.

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