IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2106.08945.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economic Impact of Critical National Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather

Author

Listed:
  • Edward J. Oughton

Abstract

Space weather is a collective term for different solar or space phenomena that can detrimentally affect technology. However, current understanding of space weather hazards is still relatively embryonic in comparison to terrestrial natural hazards such as hurricanes or earthquakes. Indeed, certain types of space weather such as large Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are an archetypal example of a low probability, high severity hazard. Few major events, short time-series data and a lack of consensus regarding the potential impacts on critical infrastructure have hampered the economic impact assessment of space weather. Yet, space weather has the potential to disrupt a wide range of Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) systems including electricity transmission, satellite communications and positioning, aviation and rail transportation. Recently there has been growing interest in these potential economic and societal impacts. Estimates range from millions of dollars of equipment damage from the Quebec 1989 event, to some analysts reporting billions of lost dollars in the wider economy from potential future disaster scenarios. Hence, this provides motivation for this article which tracks the origin and development of the socio-economic evaluation of space weather, from 1989 to 2017, and articulates future research directions for the field.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward J. Oughton, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Critical National Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather," Papers 2106.08945, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.08945
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.08945
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. P. Eastwood & E. Biffis & M. A. Hapgood & L. Green & M. M. Bisi & R. D. Bentley & R. Wicks & L.‐A. McKinnell & M. Gibbs & C. Burnett, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 206-218, February.
    2. Setola, Roberto & De Porcellinis, Stefano & Sforna, Marino, 2009. "Critical infrastructure dependency assessment using the input–output inoperability model," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 170-178.
    3. Olaf Jonkeren & Georgios Giannopoulos, 2014. "Analysing Critical Infrastructure Failure With A Resilience Inoperability Input--Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 39-59, March.
    4. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    5. Pant, Raghav & Barker, Kash & Zobel, Christopher W., 2014. "Static and dynamic metrics of economic resilience for interdependent infrastructure and industry sectors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 92-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seth D. Baum, 2023. "Assessing natural global catastrophic risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2699-2719, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luiijf, Eric & Klaver, Marieke, 2021. "Analysis and lessons identified on critical infrastructures and dependencies from an empirical data set," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    2. Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Khanna, Vikas, 2015. "Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 865-877.
    3. Sellevåg, Stig Rune, 2021. "Changes in inoperability for interdependent industry sectors in Norway from 2012 to 2017," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Baghersad, Milad & Zobel, Christopher W., 2015. "Economic impact of production bottlenecks caused by disasters impacting interdependent industry sectors," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 71-80.
    5. Poulin, Craig & Kane, Michael B., 2021. "Infrastructure resilience curves: Performance measures and summary metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Brunner, L.G. & Peer, R.A.M. & Zorn, C. & Paulik, R. & Logan, T.M., 2024. "Understanding cascading risks through real-world interdependent urban infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Edward J. Oughton & Daniel Ralph & Raghav Pant & Eireann Leverett & Jennifer Copic & Scott Thacker & Rabia Dada & Simon Ruffle & Michelle Tuveson & Jim W Hall, 2019. "Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2012-2031, September.
    8. Pradeep V. Mandapaka & Edmond Y. M. Lo, 2023. "Assessing Shock Propagation and Cascading Uncertainties Using the Input–Output Framework: Analysis of an Oil Refinery Accident in Singapore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Rehak, David & Senovsky, Pavel & Hromada, Martin & Lovecek, Tomas & Novotny, Petr, 2018. "Cascading Impact Assessment in a Critical Infrastructure System," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 125-138.
    10. Hassan Al-Zarooni & Hamdi Bashir, 2020. "An integrated ISM fuzzy MICMAC approach for modeling and analyzing electrical power system network interdependencies," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(6), pages 1204-1226, December.
    11. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Chao Zhang, 2019. "Resilience Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: A Case Study Based on Different Response Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-31, November.
    12. Linn Svegrup & Jonas Johansson & Henrik Hassel, 2019. "Integration of Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequence Models: Impact on Swedish Power System Mitigation Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1970-1996, September.
    13. Edward Oughton, 2017. "Stochastic counterfactual analysis for the vulnerability assessment of cyber-physical attacks on electricity distribution infrastructure networks," Working Papers 2017/03, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    14. Mendonça, David & Wallace, William A., 2015. "Factors underlying organizational resilience: The case of electric power restoration in New York City after 11 September 2001," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 83-91.
    15. Stergiopoulos, George & Kotzanikolaou, Panayiotis & Theocharidou, Marianthi & Lykou, Georgia & Gritzalis, Dimitris, 2016. "Time-based critical infrastructure dependency analysis for large-scale and cross-sectoral failures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 46-60.
    16. Tiong, Achara & Vergara, Hector A., 2023. "Evaluation of network expansion decisions for resilient interdependent critical infrastructures with different topologies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Michael Francis D. Benjamin & Aristotle T. Ubando & Luis F. Razon & Raymond R. Tan, 2015. "Analyzing the disruption resilience of bioenergy parks using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 351-362, September.
    18. Praks, Pavel & Kopustinskas, Vytis & Masera, Marcelo, 2015. "Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 254-264.
    19. Klein, Peter & Klein, Fabian, 2019. "Dynamics of interdependent critical infrastructures – A mathematical model with unexpected results," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 69-77.
    20. Hassan Al-Zarooni & Hamdi Bashir, 0. "An integrated ISM fuzzy MICMAC approach for modeling and analyzing electrical power system network interdependencies," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 0, pages 1-23.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.08945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.