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Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges

Author

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  • Matteo Fontana
  • Gianluca Zeni
  • Simone Vantini

Abstract

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original idea.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Fontana & Gianluca Zeni & Simone Vantini, 2020. "Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges," Papers 2005.07972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2005.07972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jing Lei & James Robins & Larry Wasserman, 2013. "Distribution-Free Prediction Sets," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 278-287, March.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2018. "Exact and robust conformal inference methods for predictive machine learning with dependent data," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. Niccol`o Ajroldi & Jacopo Diquigiovanni & Matteo Fontana & Simone Vantini, 2022. "Conformal Prediction Bands for Two-Dimensional Functional Time Series," Papers 2207.13656, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    2. Diquigiovanni, Jacopo & Fontana, Matteo & Vantini, Simone, 2022. "Conformal prediction bands for multivariate functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Jonkers, Jef & Avendano, Diego Nieves & Van Wallendael, Glenn & Van Hoecke, Sofie, 2024. "A novel day-ahead regional and probabilistic wind power forecasting framework using deep CNNs and conformalized regression forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).

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