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Enhancing Time Series Momentum Strategies Using Deep Neural Networks

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  • Bryan Lim
  • Stefan Zohren
  • Stephen Roberts

Abstract

While time series momentum is a well-studied phenomenon in finance, common strategies require the explicit definition of both a trend estimator and a position sizing rule. In this paper, we introduce Deep Momentum Networks -- a hybrid approach which injects deep learning based trading rules into the volatility scaling framework of time series momentum. The model also simultaneously learns both trend estimation and position sizing in a data-driven manner, with networks directly trained by optimising the Sharpe ratio of the signal. Backtesting on a portfolio of 88 continuous futures contracts, we demonstrate that the Sharpe-optimised LSTM improved traditional methods by more than two times in the absence of transactions costs, and continue outperforming when considering transaction costs up to 2-3 basis points. To account for more illiquid assets, we also propose a turnover regularisation term which trains the network to factor in costs at run-time.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Lim & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2019. "Enhancing Time Series Momentum Strategies Using Deep Neural Networks," Papers 1904.04912, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.04912
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "BDLOB: Bayesian Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1811.10041, arXiv.org.
    2. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2018. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning," Papers 1803.06917, arXiv.org.
    3. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2018. "The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 802-808.
    5. Kim, Abby Y. & Tse, Yiuman & Wald, John K., 2016. "Time series momentum and volatility scaling," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 103-124.
    6. Wei Bao & Jun Yue & Yulei Rao, 2017. "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2018. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning," Working Papers hal-01754054, HAL.
    8. Sid Ghoshal & Stephen J. Roberts, 2018. "Thresholded ConvNet Ensembles: Neural Networks for Technical Forecasting," Papers 1807.03192, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    9. David Silver & Julian Schrittwieser & Karen Simonyan & Ioannis Antonoglou & Aja Huang & Arthur Guez & Thomas Hubert & Lucas Baker & Matthew Lai & Adrian Bolton & Yutian Chen & Timothy Lillicrap & Fan , 2017. "Mastering the game of Go without human knowledge," Nature, Nature, vol. 550(7676), pages 354-359, October.
    10. Y. Lemp'eri`ere & C. Deremble & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Two centuries of trend following," Papers 1404.3274, arXiv.org.
    11. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "DeepLOB: Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1808.03668, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    12. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    13. Saejoon Kim, 2019. "Enhancing the momentum strategy through deep regression," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 1121-1133, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2019. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for Trading," Papers 1911.10107, arXiv.org.
    2. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2020. "Deep Learning for Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2005.13665, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    3. Trent Spears & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2020. "Investment sizing with deep learning prediction uncertainties for high-frequency Eurodollar futures trading," Papers 2007.15982, arXiv.org.

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