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Quantum Structures in Human Decision-making: Towards Quantum Expected Utility

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  • Sandro Sozzo

Abstract

{\it Ellsberg thought experiments} and empirical confirmation of Ellsberg preferences pose serious challenges to {\it subjective expected utility theory} (SEUT). We have recently elaborated a quantum-theoretic framework for human decisions under uncertainty which satisfactorily copes with the Ellsberg paradox and other puzzles of SEUT. We apply here the quantum-theoretic framework to the {\it Ellsberg two-urn example}, showing that the paradox can be explained by assuming a state change of the conceptual entity that is the object of the decision ({\it decision-making}, or {\it DM}, {\it entity}) and representing subjective probabilities by quantum probabilities. We also model the empirical data we collected in a DM test on human participants within the theoretic framework above. The obtained results are relevant, as they provide a line to model real life, e.g., financial and medical, decisions that show the same empirical patterns as the two-urn experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandro Sozzo, 2018. "Quantum Structures in Human Decision-making: Towards Quantum Expected Utility," Papers 1811.00875, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1811.00875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. I. Gilboa & A. W. Postlewaite & D. Schmeidler., 2009. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    2. Olivier L’Haridon & Lætitia Placido, 2010. "Betting on Machina’s reflection example: an experiment on ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 375-393, September.
    3. Aurelien Baillon & Olivier L'Haridon & Laetitia Placido, 2011. "Ambiguity Models and the Machina Paradoxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1547-1560, June.
    4. W. Viscusi & Harrell Chesson, 1999. "Hopes and Fears: the Conflicting Effects of Risk Ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 157-184, October.
    5. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2007. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jan 2008.
    6. Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2018. "A proposal to extend expected utility in a quantum probabilistic framework," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 1079-1109, June.
    7. Ho, Joanna L Y & Keller, L Robin & Keltyka, Pamela, 2002. "Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 47-74, January.
    8. Aerts, Diederik & Geriente, Suzette & Moreira, Catarina & Sozzo, Sandro, 2018. "Testing ambiguity and Machina preferences within a quantum-theoretic framework for decision-making," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 176-185.
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