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Improved Fr\'echet$-$Hoeffding bounds on $d$-copulas and applications in model-free finance

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  • Thibaut Lux
  • Antonis Papapantoleon

Abstract

We derive upper and lower bounds on the expectation of $f(\mathbf{S})$ under dependence uncertainty, i.e. when the marginal distributions of the random vector $\mathbf{S}=(S_1,\dots,S_d)$ are known but their dependence structure is partially unknown. We solve the problem by providing improved \FH bounds on the copula of $\mathbf{S}$ that account for additional information. In particular, we derive bounds when the values of the copula are given on a compact subset of $[0,1]^d$, the value of a functional of the copula is prescribed or different types of information are available on the lower dimensional marginals of the copula. We then show that, in contrast to the two-dimensional case, the bounds are quasi-copulas but fail to be copulas if $d>2$. Thus, in order to translate the improved \FH bounds into bounds on the expectation of $f(\mathbf{S})$, we develop an alternative representation of multivariate integrals with respect to copulas that admits also quasi-copulas as integrators. By means of this representation, we provide an integral characterization of orthant orders on the set of quasi-copulas which relates the improved \FH bounds to bounds on the expectation of $f(\mathbf{S})$. Finally, we apply these results to compute model-free bounds on the prices of multi-asset options that take partial information on the dependence structure into account, such as correlations or market prices of other traded derivatives. The numerical results show that the additional information leads to a significant improvement of the option price bounds compared to the situation where only the marginal distributions are known.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibaut Lux & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2016. "Improved Fr\'echet$-$Hoeffding bounds on $d$-copulas and applications in model-free finance," Papers 1602.08894, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.08894
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.08894
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    2. Genest, C. & Quesada Molina, J. J. & Rodriguez Lallena, J. A. & Sempi, C., 1999. "A Characterization of Quasi-copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 193-205, May.
    3. Peter Tankov, 2010. "Improved Frechet bounds and model-free pricing of multi-asset options," Papers 1004.4153, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    4. M. Taylor, 2007. "Multivariate measures of concordance," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 59(4), pages 789-806, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thibaut Lux & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2016. "Model-free bounds on Value-at-Risk using partial dependence information," Papers 1610.09734, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    2. Stephan Eckstein & Michael Kupper, 2018. "Computation of optimal transport and related hedging problems via penalization and neural networks," Papers 1802.08539, arXiv.org.

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