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Actuarial Applications and Estimation of Extended~CreditRisk$^+$

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  • Jonas Hirz
  • Uwe Schmock
  • Pavel V. Shevchenko

Abstract

We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. We then link our proposed model to an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk$^+$. This allows exact risk aggregation via an efficient numerically stable Panjer recursion algorithm and provides numerous applications in credit, life insurance and annuity portfolios to derive P\&L distributions. Furthermore, the model allows exact (without Monte Carlo simulation error) calculation of risk measures and their sensitivities with respect to model parameters for P\&L distributions such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. Numerous examples, including an application to partial internal models under Solvency II, using Austrian and Australian data are shown.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Hirz & Uwe Schmock & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2015. "Actuarial Applications and Estimation of Extended~CreditRisk$^+$," Papers 1505.04757, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1505.04757
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Alen Ong & Igor Balevich, 2009. "A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35.
    2. Schmock, Uwe, 1999. "Estimating the Value of the Wincat Coupons of the Winterthur Insurance Convertible Bond: A Study of the Model Risk1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 101-163, May.
    3. Stefan Gerhold & Uwe Schmock & Richard Warnung, 2010. "A generalization of Panjer’s recursion and numerically stable risk aggregation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 81-128, January.
    4. Embrechts, Paul & Puccetti, Giovanni & Rüschendorf, Ludger, 2013. "Model uncertainty and VaR aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2750-2764.
    5. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    6. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
    7. Sundt, Bjørn, 1999. "On Multivariate Panjer Recursions," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 29-45, May.
    8. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718, December.
    9. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    10. Puccetti, Giovanni, 2013. "Sharp bounds on the expected shortfall for a sum of dependent random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(4), pages 1227-1232.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1908 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paul Embrechts & Giovanni Puccetti, 2006. "Bounds for Functions of Dependent Risks," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 341-352, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Jim Oeppen & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, 2019. "Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths," CREATES Research Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Man Chung Fung & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2015. "A State-Space Estimation of the Lee-Carter Mortality Model and Implications for Annuity Pricing," Papers 1508.00322, arXiv.org.

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