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The Underlying Dynamics of Credit Correlations

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  • Arthur M. Berd
  • Robert F. Engle
  • Artem Voronov

Abstract

We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return distributions can substantially deviate from the asymptotic Gaussian limit for very long horizons. We introduce the notion of correlation surface as a convenient tool for comparing portfolio credit loss generating models and pricing synthetic CDO tranches. Analyzing alternative specifications of the underlying dynamics, we conclude that the asymmetric models with TARCH volatility specification are the preferred choice for generating significant and persistent credit correlation skews. The characteristic dependence of the correlation skew on term to maturity and portfolio hazard rate in these models has a significant impact on both relative value analysis and risk management of CDO tranches.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur M. Berd & Robert F. Engle & Artem Voronov, 2010. "The Underlying Dynamics of Credit Correlations," Papers 1001.0786, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1001.0786
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
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    6. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    7. He, Changli & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Properties of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 173-192, September.
    8. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    9. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    10. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
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