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Did the policy responses to COVID-19 protect Italian households’ incomes? Evidence from incomes nowcasting in microsimulation models

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Teresa Monteduro

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Dalila De Rosa

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Chiara Subrizi

    (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

Abstract

This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on Italian households’ income distribution, inequality and poverty risk, assessing the effects of policy responses during 2020. By building a unique and wide database with the latest survey, tax and administrative data at individual and firm level, and by using the micro-simulation model Taxben-DF from the Italian Department of Finance, the analysis nowcasts the income loss due to the economic shutdown since March 2020 and simulates most of the interventions adopted by the Government from March to December 2020. Results suggest that policy measures in response to the first pandemic year have been effective in keeping overall income inequality under control, not being able yet to avoid a concerning polarization of incomes and large heterogeneous effects in terms of both income losses and measures’ compensation.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Teresa Monteduro & Dalila De Rosa & Chiara Subrizi, 2023. "Did the policy responses to COVID-19 protect Italian households’ incomes? Evidence from incomes nowcasting in microsimulation models," Working Papers wp2023-16, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahg:wpaper:wp2023-16
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; inequalities; administrative and survey data; microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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