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Performance evaluation of the BUDGET model in simulating cotton and wheat yield and soil moisture in Fergana valley


  • Kenjabaev, Shavkat
  • Forkutsa, I.
  • Bach, M.
  • Frede, H.-G.


Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are major crops grown in Uzbekistan and water shortage is considered as the main limiting factor for crop growth as well as sustainable economic development. The objective of this study was to adapt and test the ability of the soil water balance model BUDGET (ver. 6.2) to simulate cotton as well as wheat yield and soil water content under current agronomic practices in the Fergana Valley. Crop yield and soil moisture content data, collected and measured from sites in 2010 and 2011, were compared with model simulations. Results showed that the BUDGET can be used to predict cotton yield and soil water content with acceptable accuracy using the minimum approach. However, predicted wheat yield was high compared to the observed and reported yield. Overall, relationship between the observed and predicted cotton and wheat yield for both sites combined produced R2 of 0.91 and 0.15, RMSE of 0.24 and 1.64 t ha−1, relative Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Erel) of 0.71 and -5.68 and index of agreement (d) of 0.48 and -0.54, respectively. Similarly, comparison of the observed and simulated soil moisture contents at the top 0-30 cm soil layer and soil water contents in 90 cm profile yielded R2 of 0.88 and 0.71-0.88, RMSE of 2.74 %vol. and 21.4-28.7 mm, Erel of 0.87 and 0.53-0.81, respectively and d around 1.0. Consequently, the BUDGET can be a valuable tool for simulating both cotton yield and soil water content, particularly considering the fact that the model requires relatively minimal input data. Predicted soil water balance can be used to improve current practice of irrigation water management, whereas simulated soil moisture content can be used to estimate capillary rise from groundwater in the UPFLOW model. However, performance of the model has to be evaluated under a wider range of agro-climatic and soil conditions in the future.

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  • Kenjabaev, Shavkat & Forkutsa, I. & Bach, M. & Frede, H.-G., 2013. "Performance evaluation of the BUDGET model in simulating cotton and wheat yield and soil moisture in Fergana valley," International Conference and Young Researchers Forum - Natural Resource Use in Central Asia: Institutional Challenges and the Contribution of Capacity Building 159114, University of Giessen (JLU Giessen), Center for International Development and Environmental Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ugidic:159114
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.159114

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    1. Stulina, G. & Cameira, M.R. & Pereira, L.S., 2005. "Using RZWQM to search improved practices for irrigated maize in Fergana, Uzbekistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(1-3), pages 263-281, August.
    2. Kazbekov, Jusipbek & Abdullaev, Iskandar & Manthrithilake, Herath & Qureshi, Asad & Jumaboev, Kakhramon, 2009. "Evaluating planning and delivery performance of Water User Associations (WUAs) in Osh Province, Kyrgyzstan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 1259-1267, August.
    3. Horst, M.G. & Shamutalov, S.S. & Pereira, L.S. & Goncalves, J.M., 2005. "Field assessment of the water saving potential with furrow irrigation in Fergana, Aral Sea basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(1-3), pages 210-231, August.
    4. Raes, Dirk & Geerts, Sam & Kipkorir, Emmanuel & Wellens, Joost & Sahli, Ali, 2006. "Simulation of yield decline as a result of water stress with a robust soil water balance model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 335-357, March.
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    International Development; Land Economics/Use; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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