IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332660.html

Identifying the effects of NAFTA on the U.S. economy between 1992 and 1998: a decomposition analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dixon, Peter
  • Rimmer, Maureen

Abstract

Trade policies often get a bad rap. It is often difficult to pinpoint the causes of poor economic outcomes and trade policies become a convenient scapegoat. In a much quoted article, Kehoe (2005) criticizes CGE modelers for underestimating the trade-stimulating effects of NAFTA. His evidence is that in the 10 years following the signing of NAFTA, trade volumes for the NAFTA countries grew more quickly than was shown ex ante in the CGE results. However, properly interpreted the CGE results were not about how fast trade would grow in these 10 years. Rather they were about how NAFTA would affect growth in trade. Put another way, the CGE modelers were making projections of how much trade growth should be attributed to NAFTA. In this paper, we address the attribution issue. Using a detailed CGE model, we decompose movements in U.S. macro and industry variables from 1992 to 1998 into the contributions of NAFTA factors and other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter & Rimmer, Maureen, 2015. "Identifying the effects of NAFTA on the U.S. economy between 1992 and 1998: a decomposition analysis," Conference papers 332660, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332660
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332660/files/7345.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 13-23, September.
    2. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Jayant Menon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2000. "Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 33-55, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1271-1330, Elsevier.
    3. Akihito Asano & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Japan's Oligopolies: Potential Gains from Third Arrow Reforms," CAMA Working Papers 2016-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Rod Tyers, 2014. "Asymmetry in Boom-Bust Shocks: Australian Performance with Oligopoly," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-23, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2009. "Forecasting with a CGE model: does it work?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-197, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2023. "What do GTAP databases tell us about technologies for industries and regions?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-340, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Akihito Asano & Rod Tyers, 2015. "Third Arrow Reforms and Japan’s Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Elhanan Helpman, 2010. "Labor Market Frictions as a Source of Comparative Advantage, with Implications for Unemployment and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 15764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Patricia Kotnik & Eva Hagsten, 2018. "ICT use as a determinant of export activity in manufacturing and service firms: Multi-country evidence," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 103-128.
    10. Acar, Mustafa & Afyonoglu, Burcu & Kus, Savas & Vural, Bengisu, 2007. "Turkey’s Agricultural Integration with the EU: Quantifying the Implications," Conference papers 331657, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2022. "Markups, quality, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Joachim Wagner, 2012. "Exports, R&D and productivity: a test of the Bustos-model with German enterprise data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 1942-1948.
    13. Yuegang Song & Songlin Jin & Zhenhui Li, 2022. "Venture Capital and Chinese Firms’ Technological Innovation Capability: Effective Evaluation and Mechanism Verification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    15. Kalantzis, Fotios & Niczyporuk, Hanna, 2021. "Can European businesses achieve productivity gains from investments in energy efficiency?," EIB Working Papers 2021/07, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    16. Dmitri Kirpichev & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2018. "The costs of trade protectionism: evidence from Spanish firms and non-tariff measures," Working Papers 1814, Banco de España.
    17. Tovar, Jorge, 2012. "Consumers’ Welfare and Trade Liberalization: Evidence from the Car Industry in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 808-820.
    18. Wang, Xu & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Zhuan & Huang, Yiping, 2016. "Roads to innovation: Firm-level evidence from China," IFPRI discussion papers 1542, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Dennis, Allen & Shepherd, Ben, 2007. "Trade costs, barriers to entry, and export diversification in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4368, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.