IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/330245.html

The Two-Gap Model of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Vector Autoregression (VAR) Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Akande, Emmanuel
  • Ola-David, Oluyomi

Abstract

This paper explores the relevance and application of the theoretical prescriptions of the Two-Gap model to the Nigerian economic growth situation from 1970-2007. A cointegration test confirmed that long run relationship exists among the variables, giving an indication that they have the tendency to reach equilibrium in the long run. It was apparent from the results of the autoregression analysis that foreign aid does not give clear evidence of an imperative growth factor in Nigeria, FDI does but is volatile. This further confirmed the transfer paradox – which posits that foreign aid tends to immiserate the recipient country. The endogeneity of aid on real GDP re-emphasizes the imperative of economic reforms as a condition for aid. The study found no theoretical or empirical justification for the assumption that filling a “trade gap” determined by “aid requirements” will boost trade and growth in the Nigerian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Akande, Emmanuel & Ola-David, Oluyomi, 2010. "The Two-Gap Model of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Vector Autoregression (VAR) Approach," Conference papers 330245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330245/files/6123_Akande.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    3. Voivodas, Constantin S., 1973. "Exports, foreign capital inflow and economic growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 337-349, November.
    4. Ofer Eldar, 2005. "Reform of IMF Conditionality," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 509-549, June.
    5. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    6. Krueger, Anne O, 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 1-22, March.
    7. KH Zhang, 2001. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From East Asia And Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
    8. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1995. "Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1995/136, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Papanek, Gustav F, 1973. "Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings, and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(1), pages 120-130, Jan.-Feb..
    10. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    11. World Bank, 2000. "Can Africa Claim the 21st Century?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22962, April.
    12. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    13. Griffin, Keith, 1970. "Foreign Capital, Domestic Savings and Economic Development," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 32(2), pages 99-112, May.
    14. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "When is foreign aid policy credible? Aid dependence and conditionality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, February.
    15. Wang, Jian-Ye & Blomstrom, Magnus, 1992. "Foreign investment and technology transfer : A simple model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 137-155, January.
    16. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1999. "The World Bank at the Millennium," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 577-597, November.
    17. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1992. "What Explains Developing Country Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    19. Levy, Victor, 1988. "Aid and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The recent experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1777-1795, November.
    20. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2002. "Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 694-707, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michal Chervin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2010. "Economic Growth and the Volatility of Foreign Aid," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-002/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny, 2008. "Aid and Growth in Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-03, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398, April.
    4. Abdiweli Ali & Hodan Isse, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Aid on Growth," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But that Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy Over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Maurice Obstfeld., 1998. "Foreign Resource Inflows, Saving, and Growth," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-099, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2006. "Controversies over the impact of development aid: it works; it doesn't; it can, but that depends …," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 1031-1050.
    8. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:1:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Innocent .U. Duru & Bartholomew .O.N. Okafor & Millicent Adanne Eze & Gabriel .O. Ebenyi, 2020. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 35-50.
    10. Lessmann, Christian & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "Aid, Growth and Devolution," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1749.
    11. Irandoust, Manuchehr & Ericsson, Johan, 2005. "Foreign aid, domestic savings, and growth in LDCs: An application of likelihood-based panel cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 616-627, July.
    12. Fambon, Samuel, 2013. "Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth in Cameroon," WIDER Working Paper Series 124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Jean-François Ruhashyankiko, 2005. "Why Do Some Countries Manage to Extract Growth from Foreign Aid?," IMF Working Papers 2005/053, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Pahlaj Moolio & Somphyvatanak Kong, 2016. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Panel Cointegration Analysis for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 2(4), pages 417-428, October.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:13:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kosack, Stephen, 2003. "Effective Aid: How Democracy Allows Development Aid to Improve the Quality of Life," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Delgado, Michael S. & McCloud, Nadine & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2014. "A generalized empirical model of corruption, foreign direct investment, and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 298-316.
    18. Tadesse, Tasew, 2011. "Foreign aid and economic growth in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 33953, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2011.
    19. Abdullahi Ahmed & Enjiang Cheng & George Messinis, 2011. "The role of exports, FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3719-3731.
    20. Sethi, Narayan & Bhujabal, Padmaja & Sahoo, Malayaranjan & Sucharita, Sanhita, 2019. "Does Foreign Aid Act as an Instrument of Economic Growth in India and Sri Lanka?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 3-19.
    21. Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA & A. K. GIRI & Madhu SEHRAWAT, 2016. "Foreign aid, macroeconomic policies and economic growth nexus in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 183-202, Winter.
    22. John Hudson & Paul Mosley, 2001. "Aid policies and growth: in search of the holy grail," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 1023-1038.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.