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An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment

Author

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  • Turvey, Calum G.
  • Toole, Andrew A.
  • Kropp, Jaclyn D.

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between uncertainty and investment decisions by food and non-food firms. Using hysteresis and the real options paradigm, we review why uncertainty might cause firms to delay investment. In particular, our model looks for a negative relationship between capital invested and uncertainty. In the alternative, if the relationship is positive, this may be consistent with the exercise of growth options or competitive markets. Empirical results are mixed. In one of the four models we present there is clear evidence of hysteresis, that is a negative relationship between year over year investment and uncertainty. The remaining 3 models indicate the opposite, a positive relationship between investment and risk. Although the models differ, the first model is the stronger of the three. Nonetheless, the results are ambiguous. Although we use a large cross sectional, time series panel set of data, we find nothing remarkable about the food industry per se, except that across industries, their level of investment is about in the middle.

Suggested Citation

  • Turvey, Calum G. & Toole, Andrew A. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2007. "An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment," 2007 1st Forum, February 15-17, 2007, Innsbruck, Austria 6606, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iefi07:6606
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6606
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sydney D. Howell & Axel J. Jägle, 1997. "Laboratory Evidence on How Managers Intuitively Value Real Growth Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7&8), pages 915-935.
    2. Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-166, February.
    3. Robert May, 2001. "Risk and uncertainty," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6840), pages 891-891, June.
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    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. Quigg, Laura, 1993. "Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-640, June.
    7. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    8. Marcus, Alan J. & Modest, David M., 1986. "The Valuation of a Random Number of Put Options: An Application to Agricultural Price Supports," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 73-86, March.
    9. Sydney D. Howell & Axel J. Jägle, 1997. "Laboratory Evidence on How Managers Intuitively Value Real Growth Options," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7‐8), pages 915-935, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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