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Agricultural Trade Flows among Developing Countries: Do Regional Preferential Trade Agreements make a Difference?


  • Tembo, Gelson
  • Jayne, Thomas S.


Regional integration through trade is recognized as one way to foster economic growth and poverty reduction. This paper uses the gravity model and 11-year panel data (1996-2006) on Southern African Development Community (SADC) member countries to study Zambia’s regional agricultural trade flows and the impact of the SADC Trade Protocol (SADC-TP). Zambia’s volume of trade is significantly related to most of the standard gravity variables. The results indicate that Zambia has been largely trading below potential, especially with respect to exports. There have been improvements in Zambia’s trade flows during the SADC-TP period but only with a few countries. Further improvements will require re-examining protocol implementation and individual countries’ production and marketing costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Tembo, Gelson & Jayne, Thomas S., 2009. "Agricultural Trade Flows among Developing Countries: Do Regional Preferential Trade Agreements make a Difference?," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51733, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae09:51733

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Howard J. Wall, 2000. "Gravity model specification and the effects of the Canada-U.S. border," Working Papers 2000-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters,in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item


    Southern Africa; regional trade; gravity analysis; Zambia; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C23; C51; F12; F14; F15;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration


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