IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Natural Disasters and Agriculture: Individual Risk Preferences towards Flooding


  • Sauer, Johannes


This study contributes to the understanding of behavioural responses to climate change induced extreme weather events. It suggest a microeconometric method for measuring flooding related risk preferences of affected individuals. The method is outlined using the empirical case of agricultural production in floodplains of the UK over 28 years. A quasi-experimental approach to measure differences in the risk attitudes of farmers located in high flooding risk areas versus farmers located in low flooding risk areas is followed. Changes in flooding risk related behaviour over time is analysed and marginal effects of different individual and disaster related characteristics for this behaviour are investigated. Beside a moments based risk estimation approach the study also applies a dynamic panel estimator. The estimates suggest that the average farmer located in a high flooding risk area is prepared to pay about 6% more of his profit for insuring against the higher risk of flooding compared to farmers in low flooding risk areas. The significance of considering individual risk preferences for an efficient flood policy design is discussed using the example of voluntary agreements for the maintainance of flood defences. Die folgende Studie untersucht individuelle Verhaltensänderungen im Hinblick auf Klima induzierte extreme Wetterereignisse. Es wird eine mikroökonometrische Methode zur Messung Flutungsbedingter Risikopräferenzen vorgeschlagen. Die Methode wird exemplarisch am Fall landwirtschaftlicher Produktion in England für einen Zeitraum von 28 Jahren aufgezeigt. Es wird ein quasi-experimenteller Ansatz verfolgt um Unterschiede in den Risikopräferenzen von Landwirten in Gebieten mit geringem Flutungsrisiko und solchen in Gebieten mit hohem Flutungsrisiko zu untersuchen. Änderungen in Flutungsrisiko bezogenem Verhalten im Zeitablauf sowie die marginalen Effekte verschiedener Charakteristiken und Faktoren werden beleuchtet. Neben einem ‚moments based‘ Schätzansatz wird ebenso ein dynamischer Panel Schätzer verwandt.

Suggested Citation

  • Sauer, Johannes, 2011. "Natural Disasters and Agriculture: Individual Risk Preferences towards Flooding," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114497, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi11:114497

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2000. "Natural "Natural Experiments" in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 827-874, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat & Sauer, Johannes & Abate-Kassa, Getachew, 2015. "Expossure To Risk And Risk Management In Smallholder Agriculture," 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 209211, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

    More about this item


    Extreme Events; Risk; Agriculture; Natural Experiments; Behavioural Adaptation; Extreme Ereignisse; Risiko; Landwirtschaft; Natürliche Experimente; Verhaltensadaption; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q12; C54;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gewi11:114497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.