Environmental signalling & expectations of future drought: Evidence from panel data

The literature on belief regarding climate is extensive, with results showing that both personal characteristics and personal experience with the effects of climate change strongly influence future expectations. The vast majority of studies rely on cross sectional data, making it difficult to ascertain the durability of expectations regarding future climate or the effect of additional environmental cues on beliefs. The few panel studies of which we are aware exploit extreme weather events to find evidence of “confirmation bias”, in which additional environmental signalling reinforces existing beliefs. In contrast, we evaluate how normal fluctuations in soil moisture causally impact expectations of future drought using a panel of New Zealand farmers. We find that environmental cues such as soil moisture scarcely affect expectations of respondents who already expected future drought to increase but that soil moisture strongly influences respondents who did not. In particular, drier soils are associated with higher expectations of future drought among these former sceptics, whether they previously believed that future drought would decrease or simply would not change. Thus, as New Zealand moves toward IPCC forecasts of more frequent and more severe drought, farmers, foresters, and growers will increasingly agree with the scientific consensus, raising the likelihood of both farm-level and public action.