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Integration of biological, economic and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential Baltic salmon management plan

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  • Levontin, Polina
  • Kulmala, Soile
  • Haapasaari, Paivi
  • Kuikka, Sakari

Abstract

There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. In this paper we demonstrate a probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic salmon fisheries. The analysis is based on several studies carried out by scientists from respective disciplines. The main part consisted of biological and ecological stock assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries. Recreational fisheries were evaluated separately. Finally, a sociological study was conducted aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment to alternative management plans. In order to synthesize the findings from these disparate studies a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology is used. The ranking of management options can depend on the stakeholder perspective. The trade-offs can be analysed quantitatively with the BBN model by combining, according to the decision maker’s set of priorities, utility functions that represent stakeholders’ views. We show how BBN can be used to evaluate robustness of management decisions to different priorities and various sources of uncertainty. In particular, the importance of sociological studies in quantifying uncertainty about the commitment of fishermen to management plans is highlighted by modelling the link between commitment and implementation success.

Suggested Citation

  • Levontin, Polina & Kulmala, Soile & Haapasaari, Paivi & Kuikka, Sakari, 2010. "Integration of biological, economic and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential Baltic salmon management plan," 2010 Conference (54th), February 10-12, 2010, Adelaide, Australia 59093, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare10:59093
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.59093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barton, D.N. & Saloranta, T. & Moe, S.J. & Eggestad, H.O. & Kuikka, S., 2008. "Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management -- Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 91-104, May.
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    1. Ge, Lan & Van Asseldonk, Marcel A.P.M. & Valeeva, Natasha I. & Hennen, Wil & Bergevoet, Ron H.M., 2011. "A Bayesian Belief Network to Infer Incentive Mechanisms to Reduce Antibiotic Use in Livestock Production," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114629, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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