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A gravity model approach to forecasting tuberculosis transmission in cattle

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  • Xie, Fang
  • Horan, Richard D.
  • Wolf, Christopher A.

Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle has caused significant economic losses to livestock producers and has proven difficult to eradicate. It is suspected that cattle movement across different farms and regions is one of the key factors of bTB transmission in the United States. Prior attempts to model the epidemiology of bTB infection within cattle to predict disease transmission have not adequately captured the behavioral aspects of trade. A better understanding of livestock trade patterns would help in predicting disease transmission and the associated economic effects. In this paper, we develop a gravity model of livestock trade and link it to an epidemiological model of bTB transmission, with the goal being that this information could lead to improved disease surveillance and management. Our findings suggest that feedbacks between jointly determined disease dynamics and trade system matter and should be considered together for efficient disease management.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Fang & Horan, Richard D. & Wolf, Christopher A., 2009. "A gravity model approach to forecasting tuberculosis transmission in cattle," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49382, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49382
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Charlotte Emlinger & Florence Jacquet & Emmanuelle Chevassus Lozza, 2008. "Tariffs and other trade costs: assessing obstacles to Mediterranean countries' access to EU-15 fruit and vegetable markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 409-438, December.
    5. Puhani, Patrick A, 2000. " The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
    6. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    7. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
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    Keywords

    Bovine tuberculosis; Gravity model; disease management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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