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On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Suggested Citation

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2012. "On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey," Working Papers 12-02, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  • Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:1202
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    Cited by:

    1. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Forecasting; Expectations; Panel data; Econometric models;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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