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On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey

Author

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  • Simón Sosvilla Rivero

    (Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

  • Maria del Carmen Ramos Herrera

    (Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

Abstract

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Suggested Citation

  • Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Maria del Carmen Ramos Herrera, 2014. "On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1402, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1402
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
    2. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1987. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-274, September.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Forecasting; Expectations; Panel data; Econometric models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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