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On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: the Spanish PwC Survey

Author

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  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero
  • Mar�a del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

Abstract

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectation formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the short run and destabilizing expectations in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Mar�a del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2013. "On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: the Spanish PwC Survey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 107-110, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:107-110
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.684775
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    Cited by:

    1. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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