IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/abn/wpaper/auwp2025-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When Cointegration Misleads: Regional Evidence on Housing Price Determinants in China

Author

Listed:
  • Liping Gao
  • Ghislain N. Gueye
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Jisoo Son

Abstract

Using data from 29 regional housing markets in China, this study examines the long-run relationships between housing prices and key macroeconomic variables. Conventional cointegration methods can be misleading, as estimated coefficients often contradict standard demand-supply theory even when statistical tests indicate cointegration. Among the variables, only real income consistently explains regional housing price dynamics, whereas real interest rates and building costs fail to do so consistently across markets. Region-specific models reveal substantial heterogeneity and are both statistically robust and economically meaningful. Panel cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence fail to detect cointegration when such heterogeneity is ignored. These findings highlight the limitations of uniform national approaches and underscore the need for tailored, region-specific housing policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Liping Gao & Ghislain N. Gueye & Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2025. "When Cointegration Misleads: Regional Evidence on Housing Price Determinants in China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2025-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2025-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2025/2025-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    2. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.
    4. Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999. "On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series," Papers 99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    5. Alastair R. Hall & Yuyi Li & Chris D. Orme & Arthur Sinko, 2015. "Testing for Structural Instability in Moment Restriction Models: An Info-Metric Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 286-327, March.
    6. Marcelo Fernandes & Breno Neri, 2010. "Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 276-306.
    7. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Nuisance parameters, composite likelihoods and a panel of GARCH models," Economics Papers 2009-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    9. Gruener Hans Peter & Hayo Bernd & Hefeker Carsten, 2009. "Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
    10. Paulo M. D. C. Parente & Richard J. Smith, 2021. "Quasi‐maximum likelihood and the kernel block bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 377-405, July.
    11. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    13. Liudas Giraitis & Fulvia Marotta, 2023. "Estimation on unevenly spaced time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5-6), pages 556-577, September.
    14. Albert S. (Pete) & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "The cumulant risk premium," BIS Working Papers 1128, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Wagner, Martin & Wied, Dominik, 2014. "Monitoring Stationarity and Cointegration," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Hypothesis," Working Papers 2005:10, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    17. Dufour, J.M., 2001. "Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie," Cahiers de recherche 2001-15, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    18. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July.
    19. Zhongjun Qu, 2011. "A Test Against Spurious Long Memory," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 423-438, July.
    20. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-274.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2025-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hyeongwoo Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deaubus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.