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Testing Phillips Curve in Sweden

In: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Hybrid Conference, Dubrovnik, Croatia, 4-6 September, 2023

Author

Listed:
  • Šimićević, Vanja
  • Lekavski, Emil

Abstract

The study aims to research the correlation between unemployment and inflation in Sweden between March 2020 - November 2021 to provide further insight into the validity of the Phillips curve. Previous research has found a contradictive relationship between unemployment and inflation. In addition, shifting market trends with lower globalization and higher inflation provide attention to evaluate the Philips curve. The focus is on Sweden because it is a small country with a high level of dependency on trade and technology. For that purpose, an econometric analysis has been applied to Swedish unemployment and inflation data between March 2020 - November 2021 to generate the correlation and examine the validity of the Phillips curve. The results indicate a weak linear relationship, suggesting that other variables than inflation have a more significant effect on unemployment than inflation. A possible explanation might be the inflation target that the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbanken) implemented in 1993, which contributed to a stable inflation level until 2021

Suggested Citation

  • Šimićević, Vanja & Lekavski, Emil, 2023. "Testing Phillips Curve in Sweden," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2023), Hybrid Conference, Dubrovnik, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Hybrid Conference, Dubrovnik, Croatia, 4-6 September, 2023, pages 22-38, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:entr23:302066
    DOI: 10.54820/entrenova-2023-0003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    2. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    3. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 19(May), pages 2-12.
    4. William L. Seyfried & Bradley T. Ewing, 2001. "Inflation Uncertainty and Unemployment: Some International Evidence," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 45(2), pages 33-39, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; unemployment; Sweden; monetary policy; econometric model; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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