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Estimating Match and World Cup Winning Probabilities

In: International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events

Author

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  • Ruud H. Koning
  • Ian G. McHale

Abstract

From the Olympics to the World Cup, mega sporting events are a source of enjoyment for tens of thousands of people, but can also be a source of intense debate and controversy. This insightful Handbook addresses a number of central questions, including: How are host cities selected and under what economic conditions? How are these events organized, and how is local resistance overcome? Based on historical and empirical experience, what are the pitfalls for the organizers of these events? What are the potential economic benefits, including any international image effects? How can the costs be minimized and the benefits maximized for host cities and countries? How do these mega events impact the challenges of globalization and what is their environmental legacy?

Suggested Citation

  • Ruud H. Koning & Ian G. McHale, 2012. "Estimating Match and World Cup Winning Probabilities," Chapters,in: International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:14313_11
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    File URL: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9780857930262.00018.xml
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scarf, Philip & Yusof, Muhammad Mat & Bilbao, Mark, 2009. "A numerical study of designs for sporting contests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 190-198, October.
    2. Ruud Koning, 2009. "Sport and Measurement of Competition," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 229-249, June.
    3. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630, April.
    4. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
    5. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Assessment: The Economics of Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 467-477, Winter.
    6. Ruud H. Koning, 1999. "Competitive Balance in Dutch Soccer," Industrial Organization 9905001, EconWPA.
    7. Dmitry Ryvkin & Andreas Ortmann, 2008. "The Predictive Power of Three Prominent Tournament Formats," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(3), pages 492-504, March.
    8. Koning, Ruud H. & Koolhaas, Michael & Renes, Gusta & Ridder, Geert, 2003. "A simulation model for football championships," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 268-276, July.
    9. Stefan Kesenne, 2007. "The Peculiar International Economics Of Professional Football In Europe," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(3), pages 388-399, July.
    10. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
    11. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
    12. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
    13. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630.
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    Keywords

    Economics and Finance;

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