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In search of the carbon price: The european CO2 emission trading scheme : from ex ante and ex post analysis to the protection in 2020

Editor

Listed:
  • De Perthuis, Christian

Author

Listed:
  • Trotignon, Raphaël

Abstract

This thesis is an evaluation of the first two phases of the EU ETS. It is articulated around the progressive construction of a simulation model, ZEPHYR-Flex, which aims at being able to replicate the observed price and emissions trajectories between 2005 and 2012, and to project them until 2020 under different sets of assumptions. The ex post analysis of the first eight years of the system reveals that to understand its development, it is necessary to study in details the role played by three flexibility mechanisms: trading, spatial flexibility (offsets), and time flexibility (banking/borrowing). In a first stage, we build a technical-economic framework for the core trading mechanism of the model. The role of offsets is then scrutinized and a scenario for their use up to 2020 is calculated on this basis. Next, the time flexibility and the related banking and borrowing behavior are introduced into the model which can then replicate the past price and emission trajectory. The model and the lessons from the first two phases are then used in different prospective scenarios to 2020. Among the scenarios tested, only a strengthening of the cap in line with the 2050 European reduction target is able to restore confidence and anticipations, two factors needed for the efficiency of the EU ETS in the long term. The issue of correctly articulating the EU ETS with other climate-energy policies is also underlined

Suggested Citation

  • Trotignon, Raphaël, 2012. "In search of the carbon price: The european CO2 emission trading scheme : from ex ante and ex post analysis to the protection in 2020," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/11212 edited by De Perthuis, Christian, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:dau:thesis:123456789/11212
    Note: dissertation
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brink, Corjan & Vollebergh, Herman R.J. & van der Werf, Edwin, 2016. "Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 603-617.
    2. Bertrand, Vincent, 2014. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with heterogenous power plants," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 198-220.
    3. Naegele, Helene, 2015. "Offset Credits in the EU Emissions Trading System : A Firm-Level Evaluation of Transaction Costs," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112817, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Richstein, Jörn C. & Chappin, Émile J.L. & de Vries, Laurens J., 2015. "The market (in-)stability reserve for EU carbon emission trading: Why it might fail and how to improve it," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with non-equally efficient power plants," Working Papers 1309, Chaire Economie du climat.
    6. Raphaël Trotignon & Pierre-André Jouvet & Boris Solier & Simon Quemin & Jérémy Elbeze, 2015. "European carbon market: lessons on the impact of a market stability reserve using the Zephyr model," Working Papers 1511, Chaire Economie du climat.
    7. Christian de Perthuis & Raphaël Trotignon, 2013. "The European CO2 allowances market: issues in the transition to Phase III," Chapters,in: Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 23, pages 500-520 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evaluation ex post; EU ETS; Crédits carbone; Ex post evaluation; Emission trading; Carbon offsets; Climate policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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