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Forecasting banknotes

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Afzal Norat

Abstract

A central bank's liquidity forecast is important in ensuring that it supplies the banking system;s need for central bank money. Banknote (or currency in circulation) demand is the largest and for some central banks the most variable component of the liquidity forecast. Accurate forecasting of banknotes is essential in ensuring an accurate liquidity forecast and in turn effective monetary policy implementation. This Handbook discusses these issues and outlines a structural time series state space (STSSS) model which is now used by central banks including the Bank of England and ECB to forecast banknotes (currency in circulation).

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Afzal Norat, 2008. "Forecasting banknotes," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 28.
  • Handle: RePEc:ccb:hbooks:28
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Documents/ccbs/handbooks/pdf/ccbshb28.pdf
    File Function: English version
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn Hoggarth and Gabriel Sterne, 1997. "Capital Flows: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 14.
    2. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Estimating general equilibrium models: an application with labour market frictions," Technical Books, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 1.
    3. Glenn Hoggarth, 1996. "Introduction to Monetary Policy," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting banknotes;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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