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Green Party Entry and Conservative Backlash: Evidence from Germany

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  • Arend, Tom
  • Ellger, Fabio
  • Valentim, António

Abstract

How do voters react to new political actors? Recent research suggests that radical right party success can provoke electoral backlash. We argue that such backlash is not exclusive to the radical right but can emerge whenever new political actors disrupt the status quo. With very distinct policy positions and behaviour, Green parties were early disruptors of post-war party systems in Europe. Using first-difference and difference-in-differences designs with voting records from Germany, we show that Green party success provoked a conservative backlash. After the Greens entered state parliaments, the Christian Democrats gained support. Using additional evidence from election surveys, we find that Green party success reinforces feelings of animosity among conservatives, mainly driven by disapproval of the Greens’ behaviour. These results highlight a broader pattern of backlash against new disruptive political actors. Our findings are especially relevant as polarization and party system fragmentation intensify across many established democracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Arend, Tom & Ellger, Fabio & Valentim, António, 2025. "Green Party Entry and Conservative Backlash: Evidence from Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55, pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:334542
    DOI: 10.1017/S0007123425100628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Dinas, Elias & Riera, Pedro & Roussias, Nasos, 2015. "Staying in the First League: Parliamentary Representation and the Electoral Success of Small Parties," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 187-204, May.
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