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A Bayesian analysis of e‐cigarette risk perceptions in the United Kingdom

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  • W. Kip Viscusi

Abstract

Public Health England has communicated that e‐cigarettes provide at least a 95% risk reduction compared to conventional cigarettes. This article's survey evidence indicates that adults in the United Kingdom believe that e‐cigarettes are only 30%–40% safer overall and that they reduce lung cancer risks and total mortality risks by a similar percentage. A Bayesian analysis of risk beliefs finds that e‐cigarette risk perceptions are anchored on prior cigarette risk beliefs. The public, especially smokers, underestimates the magnitude of the risk reduction being communicated by public health officials. Those who are aware of e‐cigarette messages from Public Health England assess lower risks of e‐cigarettes, but they still underestimate the relative risk reduction. Even people with favorable qualitative beliefs about the harm reduction provided by e‐cigarettes overestimate the riskiness of e‐cigarettes.

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  • W. Kip Viscusi, 2024. "A Bayesian analysis of e‐cigarette risk perceptions in the United Kingdom," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(3), pages 612-633, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:90:y:2024:i:3:p:612-633
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12674
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dhaval Dave & Daniel Dench & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios & Hua Wang, 2020. "News that takes your breath away: risk perceptions during an outbreak of vaping-related lung injuries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 281-307, June.
    2. Dimitra Kale & Olga Perski & Aleksandra Herbec & Emma Beard & Lion Shahab, 2022. "Changes in Cigarette Smoking and Vaping in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK: Findings from Baseline and 12-Month Follow up of HEBECO Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-16, January.
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    4. Donald S. Kenkel & Sida Peng & Michael F. Pesko & Hua Wang, 2020. "Mostly harmless regulation? Electronic cigarettes, public policy, and consumer welfare," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1364-1377, November.
    5. Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-956, December.
    6. Dhaval Dave & Bo Feng & Michael F. Pesko, 2019. "The effects of e‐cigarette minimum legal sale age laws on youth substance use," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 419-436, March.
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    9. Viscusi, W Kip, 1991. "Age Variations in Risk Perceptions and Smoking Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 577-588, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lawrence Jin & Don Kenkel & Michael Lovenheim & Alan Mathios & Hua Wang, 2024. "Misinformation, consumer risk perceptions, and markets: The impact of an information shock on vaping and smoking cessation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1652-1678, October.

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