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Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects

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  • Michela Campedel
  • Valerio Cozzani
  • Anita Garcia‐Agreda
  • Ernesto Salzano

Abstract

In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural‐technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold‐up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michela Campedel & Valerio Cozzani & Anita Garcia‐Agreda & Ernesto Salzano, 2008. "Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1231-1246, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:5:p:1231-1246
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01092.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, 1997. "Hazardous Materials Releases in the Northridge Earthquake: Implications for Seismic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 147-156, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weili Duan & Bin He, 2015. "Emergency Response System for Pollution Accidents in Chemical Industrial Parks, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Jiajun Wang & Zhichao He & Wenguo Weng, 2020. "A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2003-2026, December.
    3. Rossi, Lorenzo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of process pipelines affected by flood events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    5. Olivar, Oscar J. Ramírez & Mayorga, Santiago Zuluaga & Giraldo, Felipe Muñoz & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Pinelli, Jean-Paul & Salzano, Ernesto, 2020. "The effects of extreme winds on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    7. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Nicholas Santella & Laura J. Steinberg & Gloria Andrea Aguirra, 2011. "Empirical Estimation of the Conditional Probability of Natech Events Within the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 951-968, June.
    10. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Daniele Giordan & Martina Cignetti & Danilo Godone & Silvia Peruccacci & Emanuele Raso & Giacomo Pepe & Domenico Calcaterra & Andrea Cevasco & Marco Firpo & Patrizio Scarpellini & Marta Gnone, 2020. "A New Procedure for an Effective Management of Geo-Hydrological Risks across the “Sentiero Verde-Azzurro” Trail, Cinque Terre National Park, Liguria (North-Western Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    12. Daniele Giordan & Martina Cignetti & Danilo Godone & Davide Bertolo & Marco Paganone, 2021. "Definition of an Operative Methodology for the Management of Rockfalls along with the Road Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Caputo, Antonio C. & Kalemi, Bledar & Paolacci, Fabrizio & Corritore, Daniele, 2020. "Computing resilience of process plants under Na-Tech events: Methodology and application to sesmic loading scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    15. Maria Vittoria Gargiulo & Alexander Garcia & Andrea Paulillo & Ortensia Amoroso & Ernesto Salzano & Paolo Capuano, 2021. "An Integrated Approach to Risk and Impacts of Geo-Resources Exploration and Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-31, July.

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