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What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision‐Making?

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  • Dale Hattis
  • Elizabeth L. Anderson

Abstract

This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk‐management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think Variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale Hattis & Elizabeth L. Anderson, 1999. "What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision‐Making?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 95-107, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:1:p:95-107
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00392.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dale Hattis & Robert L. Goble, 1991. "Expected Values for Projected Cancer Risks from Putative Genetically Acting Agents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(3), pages 359-363, September.
    2. Kenneth J. Arrow & Robert C. Lind, 1974. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 3, pages 54-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1988. "Equity in Social Risk: Some Empirical Observations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 135-146, March.
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    1. Ramya Chari & Thomas A. Burke & Ronald H. White & Mary A. Fox, 2012. "Integrating Susceptibility into Environmental Policy: An Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for Lead," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Michael Greenberg & Charles Haas & Anthony Cox & Karen Lowrie & Katherine McComas & Warner North, 2012. "Ten Most Important Accomplishments in Risk Analysis, 1980–2010," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 771-781, May.
    3. Michael R. Greenberg & Karen Lowrie, 2016. "Elizabeth Anderson: Cancer Risk Assessment Pioneer," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 646-649, April.
    4. Adam M. Finkel & George Gray, 2018. "Taking the reins: how regulatory decision-makers can stop being hijacked by uncertainty," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 230-238, June.

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