IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v19y1999i1p95-107.html

What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision‐Making?

Author

Listed:
  • Dale Hattis
  • Elizabeth L. Anderson

Abstract

This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk‐management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think Variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale Hattis & Elizabeth L. Anderson, 1999. "What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision‐Making?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 95-107, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:1:p:95-107
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00392.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00392.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00392.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale Hattis & Robert L. Goble, 1991. "Expected Values for Projected Cancer Risks from Putative Genetically Acting Agents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(3), pages 359-363, September.
    2. Kenneth J. Arrow & Robert C. Lind, 1974. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 3, pages 54-75, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1988. "Equity in Social Risk: Some Empirical Observations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 135-146, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Greenberg & Charles Haas & Anthony Cox & Karen Lowrie & Katherine McComas & Warner North, 2012. "Ten Most Important Accomplishments in Risk Analysis, 1980–2010," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 771-781, May.
    2. Michael R. Greenberg & Karen Lowrie, 2016. "Elizabeth Anderson: Cancer Risk Assessment Pioneer," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 646-649, April.
    3. Adam M. Finkel & George Gray, 2018. "Taking the reins: how regulatory decision-makers can stop being hijacked by uncertainty," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 230-238, June.
    4. Ramya Chari & Thomas A. Burke & Ronald H. White & Mary A. Fox, 2012. "Integrating Susceptibility into Environmental Policy: An Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for Lead," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Marc Boussard, 2002. "Quotas et marchés à terme: similitudes et différences," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 270(1), pages 84-93.
    2. Rausser, Gordon C. & de Janvry, Alain & Schmitz, Andrew & Zilberman, David D., 1980. "Principal issues in the evaluation of public research in agriculture," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt74v9m7dh, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    3. Reinhard Mechler & Stefan Hochrainer & Asbjørn Aaheim & Håkon Salen & Anita Wreford, 2010. "Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 737-762, October.
    4. Bruno CRUZ & Aude POMMERET, 2002. "Does public investment reduce private investment risk ? A real option approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2002039, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Tirelli, Mario, 2006. "The evaluation of public investments under uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 188-198, December.
    6. Edward C. F. Wilson & Miranda Mugford & Garry Barton & Lee Shepstone, 2016. "Efficient Research Design," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 36(3), pages 335-348, April.
    7. Yuri Biondi, 2009. "Capital budgeting under relational contracting: optimal ranking and duration criteria for schemes of concession, project-financing and public-private partnership," Post-Print hal-00404305, HAL.
    8. HEIFETZ, Aviad & MINELLI, Enrico & POLEMARCHAKIS, Heracles, 1999. "Arbitrage and equilibrium with exchangeable risks," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1999046, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Pareto efficient taxation and expenditures: Pre- and re-distribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 101-119.
    10. Laszlo Goerke, 2011. "Commodity tax structure under uncertainty in a perfectly competitive market," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 103(3), pages 203-219, July.
    11. George R. Zodrow, 2019. "Taxation, Uncertainty and the Choice of a Consumption Tax Base," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: George R Zodrow (ed.), TAXATION IN THEORY AND PRACTICE Selected Essays of George R. Zodrow, chapter 8, pages 227-237, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Thorsten Beckers & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2003. "Konzessionsmodelle für Fernstraßen in Deutschland: eine ökonomische Analyse der Risikoallokation beim F- und A-Modell," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Rodrigo Nobre Fernandez & André Carraro & Gabrielito Menezes & Giácomo Balbinotto Neto & Eduardo Tillmann, 2014. "Design Contract For Public-Privatepartnerships: A Theoretical Model For Brazilian Hospitals," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 062, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Ehsan Taheri & Chen Wang, 2018. "Eliciting Public Risk Preferences in Emergency Situations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 223-241, December.
    15. repec:tur:wpaper:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. James W. Hughes & Michael J. Moore & Edward A. Snyder, 2002. ""Napsterizing" Pharmaceuticals: Access, Innovation, and Consumer Welfare," NBER Working Papers 9229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Christoph Heinzel & Ralph Winkler, 2011. "Distorted Time Preferences and Time-to-Build in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy Industry," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 217-241, June.
    18. Wen‐Qiang Bian & L. Robin Keller, 1999. "Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair, but Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 439-452, June.
    19. Tse-Ling Teh & Alan Martina, 2008. "Developing Countries Spreading Covariant Risk Into International Risk Markets: Subsidised Catastrophe Bonds Or Reinsurance, Or Disaster Assistance?," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-492, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    20. Agnar Sandmo, 2010. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Public Finance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, June.
    21. Mark D. Agee & Thomas D. Crocker, 2002. "On Techniques to Value the Impact of Environmental Hazards on Children's Health," NCEE Working Paper Series 200208, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Sep 2002.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:1:p:95-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.