IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v5y1996i1p75-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The prediction of default for high yield bond issues

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen P. Huffman
  • David J. Ward

Abstract

Bondholders and financial analysts have long sought models which will predict financial distress in corporations. Prior research has produced a number of useful models to predict bankruptcy in the short term. This paper looks at four models which predict default based upon public information at the time of issuance of high yield bonds. Multivariate results using logistic regression analysis indicate that high yield issues that default are characterized by having higher asset growth rates, lower operating profit margins, larger levels of collateralizable assets, and larger changes in net working capital. Models using Altman (1968) variables have lower likelihood ratio indexes than models employing alternative explanatory variables. Predictive ability tests of models excluding the traditional variables on a holdout sample are able to correctly predict 73.3 percent of the defaulted bonds and 68.6 percent of the nondefaulted bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P. Huffman & David J. Ward, 1996. "The prediction of default for high yield bond issues," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 75-89, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:5:y:1996:i:1:p:75-89
    DOI: 10.1016/S1058-3300(96)90007-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1058-3300(96)90007-5
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/S1058-3300(96)90007-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    2. Altman, Edward I, 1984. "A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1067-1089, September.
    3. Kenneth Lehn & Annette Poulsen, 1989. "Free Cash Flow and Stockholder Gains in Going Private Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 771-787, July.
    4. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    5. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1975. "The Role of Subordination and Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 201-206, March.
    6. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    7. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    8. Gentry, James A & Whitford, David T & Newbold, Paul, 1988. "Predicting Industrial Bond Ratings with a Probit Model and Funds Flow Components," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 269-286, August.
    9. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:771-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gilson, Stuart C. & John, Kose & Lang, Larry H. P., 1990. "Troubled debt restructurings*1: An empirical study of private reorganization of firms in default," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 315-353, October.
    12. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1973. "A Multivariate Analysis of Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Bruner, Robert F., 1988. "The Use of Excess Cash and Debt Capacity as a Motive for Merger," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 199-217, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huffman, Stephen P. & Ward, David J., 1996. "The prediction of default for high yield bond issues," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 75-89.
    2. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    3. Yasser Alhenawi & Martha Stilwell, 2017. "Value creation and the probability of success in merger and acquisition transactions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1041-1085, November.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    5. Poon, Winnie P. H. & Firth, Michael & Fung, Hung-Gay, 1999. "A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 267-283, August.
    6. Glenn Boyle & Kelly Eckhold, 1997. "Capital structure choice and financial market liberalization: evidence from New Zealand," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 427-437.
    7. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    8. Chen, Peter F. & He, Shaohua & Ma, Zhiming & Stice, Derrald, 2016. "The information role of audit opinions in debt contracting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 121-144.
    9. Clemente-Almendros, José A. & Sogorb-Mira, Francisco, 2018. "Costs of debt, tax benefits and a new measure of non-debt tax shields: examining debt conservatism in Spanish listed firms," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 162-175.
    10. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    11. Bravo-Urquiza, Francisco & Moreno-Ureba, Elena, 2021. "Does compliance with corporate governance codes help to mitigate financial distress?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    12. Sepulveda Velasquez, Jorge, 2021. "Bibliometric Review of Research in Financial Health," MPRA Paper 111353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Pindado, Julio & Rodrigues, Luis & de la Torre, Chabela, 2008. "Estimating financial distress likelihood," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 995-1003, September.
    14. Hyun Mo Sung, 1993. "The Effects Of Overpayment And Form Of Financing On Bidder Returns In Mergers And Tender Offers," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 351-365, December.
    15. Harlan D. Platt & Marjorie B. Platt, 2008. "Financial Distress Comparison Across Three Global Regions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-34, December.
    16. Jiang-Chuan Huang & Hueh-Chen Lin & Daniel Huang, 2022. "The Effect of Operating Cash Flow on the Likelihood and Duration of Survival for Marginally Distressed Firms in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Thomas J. Chemmanur & Karen Simonyan, 2010. "What Drives the Issuance of Putable Convertibles: Risk‐Shifting, Asymmetric Information, or Taxes?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1027-1068, September.
    18. Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chung, Huimin & Chu, C.K., 2010. "Predicting issuer credit ratings using a semiparametric method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 120-137, January.
    19. Nadine Levratto & Luc Tessier & Messaoud Zouikri, 2011. "Small, alone and poor: a merciless portrait of insolvent French firms, 2007-2010," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-36, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Manzaneque, Montserrat & Priego, Alba María & Merino, Elena, 2016. "Corporate governance effect on financial distress likelihood: Evidence from Spain," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 111-121.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:5:y:1996:i:1:p:75-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.